Casualty forecasts for Northern Ireland in 2020 and Key Performance Indicators

This report presents the conclusions of a study that was commissioned by the Department of the Environment, Northern Ireland to assist with setting a casualty reduction target for 2020. Two sets of forecasts are presented, one for the number of people killed in road collisions in Northern Ireland in 2020 and the other for the number who will be seriously injured. The main casualty forecasts are for the five road user groups: car occupants, motorcyclists, pedestrians, pedal cyclists and others. In addition, there are forecasts for two age groups: children (aged 0-15) and young adults (aged 16-24). The overall forecasts suggest that if strong traffic growth resumes in Northern Ireland in the medium term, as foreseen by official predictions, then the number of deaths in 2020 would be about one third less than the 2004-08 average, while the number of serious casualties would fall by about two-fifths. The casualty forecasts show what may be achieved by continuing current efforts to improve road safety, and these reductions are in no sense predetermined.