Future scenarios for inland surface transport

This is a study of possible future transport research needs over the next three decades or so, commissioned by the Chief Scientist of the Department of Transport as a basis for discussion of the Department's longer-term research strategy. It is essentially a consensual view of likely future developments in transport as seen by senior scientists from TRL, plus an academic, who have a broad overview and long experience of transport research in areas of expertise concerned primarily with road transport, but covering a wide range from structural and highway engineering, through traffic engineering and transport demand analysis, vehicle engineering and safety, environmental nuisance and pollution, to road safety and human behaviour. In addition to the lead authors of the report, many other experienced researchers have contributed views and ideas. Each contributor has sketched out possible developments within his or her own field over the next thirty or forty years, at greater or lesser levels of likelihood and on different timescales, and this has been reviewed iteratively and collectively to establish a common view of the most important issues and changes. Research which will be necessary to underpin these developments has then been identified. This large report considers possible developments, in both technology and policy, in relation to three undesirable "externalities", or problems, of transport: congestion, accidents and injuries, and environmental damage, but also in relation to the broader need for cost-effectiveness and value for money. It also discusses them in relation to three distinct future scenarios: one is more or less a continuation of current trends, another places much greater emphasis on reducing the undesirable externalities and is willing to accept a reduction in acceptability as the price for this, and the third tries to reduce the externalities while maintaining accessibility at broadly current levels. The main focus of this report is on road transport, but future developments in rail transport are also considered. (A)