The potential impact of Graduated Driver Licensing in Northern Ireland

Published: Mar 2020

Citation:

ISBN: 978-1-913246-20-4

Author: N Kinnear, J Hammond, L Smith, R Ramnath, G Simms, J Hitchings, S Helman

Pages: 38

Reference: PPR934

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In order to address the overrepresentation of young and novice drivers in road collisions, Northern Ireland is set to implement a Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) system. The system will include a minimum six month learner period, a six month post-test passenger restriction (no passengers aged between 14-20 years) between 23:00 and 06:00, and a 24 month new driver period incorporating a lower alcohol limit. Reinforcing elements such as a programme of driver training and a logbook, and identifiers to be carried during the probationary phase are also being implemented. This report details a review of the international literature which was used to inform and contextualise a predictive analysis of the expected impact of GDL in Northern Ireland using police reported collision data from 2012-2018. Analysis revealed that the proposed combined passenger at night-time component is expected to result in a reduction of 30 casualties of all severities each year (including 6 killed or seriously injured (KSI)). This equates to an annual saving of costs to society of £3 million. Decoupling of the combined passenger at night-time restriction to create independent passenger and night-time restrictions would increase effectiveness to 241 fewer casualties and a saving to society of £16 million each year. Further strengthening of the independent effects of night-time and passenger restrictions was also explored. This suggested that bringing forward the start time of a night-time restriction from 23:00 to 21:00 would almost double the casualty savings from this component. Strengthening of an independent passenger component had a more moderate impact.

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